Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bistrica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bistrica 3-1 Rudar
Original prediction
Bistrica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.7% | 42.6% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.3% | 27.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 36.0% | 29.7% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Bistrica
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Bistrica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BistricaLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RudarWWWLW
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BistricaRudar
100.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
88.7Power15.3
2.00xG1.04