Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bistrica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bistrica 1-0 Primorje
Original prediction
Bistrica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 45.9% | 50.6% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.2% | 23.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.0% | 25.7% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Bistrica
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Bistrica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BistricaDWLLW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PrimorjeDDDLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 2/5
BistricaPrimorje
48.1Attack36.7
44.4Defence46.7
48.1Form33.3
47.3Power41.4
1.70xG1.08