Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bistrica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bistrica 2-1 Brežice
Original prediction
Bistrica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 62.6% | 51.6% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.2% | 25.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.86 | 15.3% | 23.3% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Bistrica
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Bistrica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BistricaLWWLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BrežiceDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BistricaBrežice
100.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
88.7Power23.7
1.99xG1.06