Birzebbugavs
Valletta FC
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Valletta FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birzebbuga 0-3 Valletta FC
Original prediction
Valletta FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.92 | 13.0% | 16.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.4% | 21.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 64.6% | 62.2% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Valletta FC
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
Valletta FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80