Birzebbugavs
Marsaxlokk
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marsaxlokk · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birzebbuga 2-0 Marsaxlokk
Original prediction
Marsaxlokk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.17 | 21.6% | 13.9% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.3% | 19.5% | -7.8 pts |
| Away | 1.76 | 51.1% | 66.6% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Marsaxlokk
Probability
66.6%
Model confidence
66.6%
Marsaxlokk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60