Birzebbugavs
Hamrun Spartans
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 9/11/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamrun Spartans · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birzebbuga 0-2 Hamrun Spartans
Original prediction
Hamrun Spartans
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.66 | 11.9% | 25.9% | 14.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.64 | 19.6% | 26.1% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 68.5% | 48.1% | -20.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hamrun Spartans
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Hamrun Spartans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40