GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/3/2024, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Birmingham are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Walsall are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 41.6-point power-rating edge (74.6 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

78.8%

Model confidence

78.8%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BirminghamWLWWW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
WalsallWWLWD

GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BirminghamWalsall
79.2Attack55.6
70.8Defence22.2
79.2Form11.1
74.6Power32.9
3.33xG0.91
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