GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 4/13/2025, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Birmingham are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Peterborough are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Peterborough hold a 6.5-point power-rating edge (74.6 v 81.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

40.3%

Model confidence

40.3%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BirminghamWWWWD

GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
PeterboroughLLWLW

GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
BirminghamPeterborough
79.2Attack75.0
70.8Defence79.2
79.2Form87.5
74.6Power81.1
1.63xG1.38
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