GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 2/18/2025, 8:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Birmingham are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Bradford are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Bradford hold a 6.7-point power-rating edge (74.6 v 81.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

43.5%

Model confidence

43.5%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

BirminghamWWLWL

GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BradfordDWWWL

GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20

BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
BirminghamBradford
79.2Attack76.2
70.8Defence85.7
79.2Form85.7
74.6Power81.3
1.74xG1.35
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