Birmingham Legionvs
New Mexico United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/17/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New Mexico United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham Legion 4-4 New Mexico United
Original prediction
New Mexico United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.4% | 26.6% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 24.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.8% | 48.6% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
New Mexico United
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
New Mexico United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20