GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 6/14/2026, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham Legion · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Birmingham Legion are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Las Vegas Lights are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Las Vegas Lights hold a 5.6-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.9% in the USL Championship, while Birmingham Legion holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham Legion

Probability

33.7%

Model confidence

14.9%

Birmingham Legion has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Birmingham LegionWDLDD

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Las Vegas LightsLDWLL

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Birmingham LegionLas Vegas Lights
35.3Attack45.6
58.8Defence52.6
33.3Form45.6
45.0Power50.6
1.05xG1.05
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