GGOALVIO

USA · USL Championship · 3/18/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Birmingham Legion are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (DL), averaging 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded, while FC Tulsa are 0W-2D-2L in their last 4 (DLLD), averaging 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Tulsa hold a 9.7-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 54.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the USL Championship, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

42.9%

Model confidence

42.9%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Birmingham LegionDL

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/2.00

BTTS 2/2O2.5 1/2
FC TulsaDLLD

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.75/1.50

BTTS 3/4O2.5 1/4
Birmingham LegionFC Tulsa
35.3Attack37.0
58.8Defence68.5
33.3Form53.7
45.0Power54.7
0.69xG0.86
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