Birmingham City Wvs
Liverpool W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 9/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham City W 3-4 Liverpool W
Original prediction
Liverpool W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.52 | 16.2% | 28.0% | 11.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.3% | 25.0% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 62.6% | 47.0% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool W
Probability
47.0%
Model confidence
47.0%
Liverpool W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40