Birmingham City Wvs
Brighton W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/13/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham City W 2-2 Brighton W
Original prediction
Brighton W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.59 | 19.8% | 32.7% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.5% | 26.4% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 57.7% | 41.0% | -16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Brighton W
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Brighton W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40