Birmingham City U21vs
Derby County U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham City U21 0-4 Derby County U21
Original prediction
Birmingham City U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.6% | 39.0% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.5% | 23.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.0% | 38.0% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–16%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham City U21
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Birmingham City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 10 · GA 17 · avg 2.00/3.40