Birmingham City U21vs
Arsenal U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham City U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham City U21 0-0 Arsenal U21
Original prediction
Birmingham City U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.52 | 20.0% | 38.9% | 18.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.1% | 22.7% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 60.9% | 38.4% | -22.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham City U21
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Birmingham City U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60