Birkirkaravs
Floriana
COMPLETEDMalta · Premier League · 10/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Floriana · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birkirkara 1-1 Floriana
Original prediction
Floriana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 34.6% | 31.2% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.3% | 26.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.0% | 42.2% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Floriana
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Floriana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20