Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bilje · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bilje 2-0 Krka
Original prediction
Bilje
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.9% | 54.9% | 17.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 19.9% | -6.4 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 36.8% | 25.3% | -11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Bilje
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Bilje has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BiljeLWLLW
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KrkaLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BiljeKrka
60.0Attack37.0
26.7Defence33.3
50.0Form22.2
46.5Power33.4
2.63xG1.47