Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Biellese · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Biellese 4-1 Valenzana
Original prediction
Biellese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.3% | 42.8% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.0% | 27.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.79 | 18.7% | 29.5% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Biellese
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Biellese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BielleseLWWWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ValenzanaDWWLD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BielleseValenzana
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.44xG1.23