BG Pathum Unitedvs
Rasi Salai United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BG Pathum United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BG Pathum United 3-2 Rasi Salai United
Original prediction
BG Pathum United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 67.8% | 48.9% | -19.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.3% | 25.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 7.56 | 11.9% | 25.3% | 13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
BG Pathum United
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
BG Pathum United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60