BG Pathum Unitedvs
Chiangrai United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BG Pathum United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BG Pathum United 2-0 Chiangrai United
Original prediction
BG Pathum United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.2% | 48.0% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.5% | 26.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.92 | 18.3% | 25.7% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
BG Pathum United
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
BG Pathum United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40