BG Pathum Unitedvs
Ayutthaya FC
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 10/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BG Pathum United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BG Pathum United 1-1 Ayutthaya FC
Original prediction
BG Pathum United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.2% | 43.7% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.0% | 25.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 6.51 | 13.8% | 30.6% | 16.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
BG Pathum United
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
BG Pathum United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20