BG Pathum Unitedvs
Adelaide United
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Two · 10/15/2026, 12:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Adelaide United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BG Pathum United 1-2 Adelaide United
Original prediction
Adelaide United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 42.8% | 34.7% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.8% | 27.1% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.89 | 31.4% | 38.2% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Adelaide United
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Adelaide United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40