BFC Daugavpilsvs
Rīgas FS
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/13/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BFC Daugavpils 1-2 Rīgas FS
Original prediction
Rīgas FS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.64 | 11.9% | 11.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 18.8% | 19.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 69.3% | 68.7% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–214%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
68.7%
Model confidence
68.7%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BFC DaugavpilsDDLDW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Rīgas FSDLWDW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BFC DaugavpilsRīgas FS
39.1Attack81.0
62.1Defence76.2
43.7Form83.3
49.8Power79.2
0.63xG1.85