Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Minija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BFA 2-1 Minija
Original prediction
Minija
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.14 | 14.6% | 11.3% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 21.3% | 16.9% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.40 | 64.1% | 71.8% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Minija
Probability
71.8%
Model confidence
71.8%
Minija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BFALLLDW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MinijaLLWWW
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
BFAMinija
49.4Attack89.7
50.6Defence79.5
53.1Form85.9
52.2Power82.9
0.81xG2.47