Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFA · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
BFA are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Ekranas are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and BFA hold a 50.1-point power-rating edge (65.5 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.8% in the Cup, while BFA holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
BFA
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
BFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40