BFAvs
Žalgiris II
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 10/9/2026, 5:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFA · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
BFA 1-2 Žalgiris II
Original prediction
BFA
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.4% | 43.3% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.0% | 24.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 24.6% | 32.4% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
BFA
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
BFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BFALDWWD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Žalgiris IILWWWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BFAŽalgiris II
52.0Attack50.7
53.3Defence57.3
57.3Form57.3
55.2Power56.5
1.44xG1.31