Beroevs
Ludogorets
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Cup · 10/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Beroe 0-3 Ludogorets
Original prediction
Ludogorets
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 12:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.38 | 6.8% | 34.8% | 28.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.17 | 14.7% | 23.6% | 8.9 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 78.5% | 41.7% | -36.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BeroeLWWLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LudogoretsWWWWW
GF 17 · GA 2 · avg 3.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
BeroeLudogorets
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
80.3Power50.0
2.12xG1.39