Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barbados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bermuda 1-2 Barbados
Original prediction
Barbados
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.39 | 20.8% | 23.3% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.37 | 20.9% | 22.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 58.3% | 54.2% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Barbados
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Barbados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BermudaLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BarbadosWDWDD
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BermudaBarbados
44.4Attack88.9
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form77.8
19.2Power77.5
1.31xG2.49