Berkhamstedvs
Hanworth Villa
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hanworth Villa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Berkhamsted 1-2 Hanworth Villa
Original prediction
Hanworth Villa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.72 | 32.9% | 28.2% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 26.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.1% | 45.4% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Hanworth Villa
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Hanworth Villa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00