Bergantiñosvs
Portugalete
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bergantiños · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bergantiños 3-2 Portugalete
Original prediction
Bergantiños
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 40.9% | 40.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.0% | 29.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.1% | 29.9% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Bergantiños
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Bergantiños has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80