Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Berga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Berga 0-2 Linero
Original prediction
Berga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.1% | 55.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.9% | 18.7% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.0% | 25.8% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Berga
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Berga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BergaWWLWW
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LineroWLWDL
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BergaLinero
73.3Attack64.0
50.7Defence44.0
57.3Form54.7
59.9Power54.1
2.74xG1.74