Bergavs
Lilla Torg
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Götaland · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Berga · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Berga 1-3 Lilla Torg
Original prediction
Berga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.0% | 67.3% | 10.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.0% | 17.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 4.49 | 20.1% | 14.9% | -5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Berga
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
Berga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20