Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Berceo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Berceo 1-3 Agoncillo
Original prediction
Berceo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.5% | 40.4% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.7% | 29.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.9% | 30.1% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Berceo
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Berceo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BerceoLWWWL
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AgoncilloDLWWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BerceoAgoncillo
66.7Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
80.3Power50.0
1.27xG0.82