Benjamín Acevalvs
Independiente F.b.c.
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benjamín Aceval · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benjamín Aceval 2-3 Independiente F.b.c.
Original prediction
Benjamín Aceval
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 39.8% | 39.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 26.7% | 28.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 33.5% | 31.5% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Benjamín Aceval
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Benjamín Aceval has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80