Beninvs
Mauritania
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mauritania · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benin 2-1 Mauritania
Original prediction
Mauritania
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.1% | 33.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.80 | 32.6% | 29.7% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.4% | 36.7% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Mauritania
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Mauritania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00