Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Benfica are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Toulouse are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 19.7-point power-rating edge (69.5 v 49.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
57.8%
Model confidence
57.8%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60