Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Benfica are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Rangers are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 33.0-point power-rating edge (69.5 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.3% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
60.3%
Model confidence
60.3%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80