Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Benfica are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Marseille are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 14.0-point power-rating edge (69.5 v 55.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.8% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 68% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00