Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica 4-1 Celtic
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 78.9% | 63.4% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 7.22 | 13.2% | 20.1% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 12.01 | 7.9% | 16.5% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
63.4%
Model confidence
63.4%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BenficaWLWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CelticWLLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BenficaCeltic
100.0Attack33.3
71.4Defence0.0
76.2Form0.0
79.1Power15.3
2.73xG0.77