Benfica U23vs
Moreirense U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica U23 1-1 Moreirense U23
Original prediction
Benfica U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.7% | 44.6% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.5% | 26.2% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.8% | 29.2% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Benfica U23
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Benfica U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00