Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica B · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica B 0-2 Torreense
Original prediction
Benfica B
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.66 | 34.4% | 40.8% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.5% | 28.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 37.0% | 31.1% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Benfica B
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Benfica B has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Benfica BLDWWW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
TorreenseLDDLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Benfica BTorreense
47.1Attack33.3
52.9Defence33.3
44.1Form0.0
49.8Power23.7
1.57xG1.05