Bellinzonavs
Zürich II
COMPLETEDSwitzerland · 1. Liga Promotion · 10/4/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zürich II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bellinzona 0-4 Zürich II
Original prediction
Zürich II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.6% | 32.4% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.9% | 26.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 32.5% | 41.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Zürich II
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Zürich II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40