World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/9/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belgium W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-0 (12%), 3-0 (12%), 5-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belgium W 1-0 Poland W
Original prediction
Belgium W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.5% | 53.8% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.7% | 23.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 25.8% | 22.6% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–012%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.5–09%
Predicted outcome
Belgium W
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Belgium W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 1 · avg 3.80/0.20
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60