Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belgium · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belgium 3-0 Türkiye
Original prediction
Belgium
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 60.7% | 51.0% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.51 | 21.0% | 25.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 18.3% | 23.3% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Belgium
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Belgium has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BelgiumLWWWD
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TürkiyeLLWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BelgiumTürkiye
33.3Attack16.7
83.3Defence16.7
50.0Form0.0
56.2Power16.3
1.63xG0.85