Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
France · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belgium 0-1 France
Original prediction
France
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 24.4% | 35.9% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.3% | 28.0% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 51.3% | 36.0% | -15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
France
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
France has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BelgiumWWWDW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FranceWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BelgiumFrance
66.7Attack33.3
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power80.3
1.32xG1.01