Belgium U21vs
Wales U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belgium U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belgium U21 1-0 Wales U21
Original prediction
Belgium U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 78.6% | 62.4% | -16.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.61 | 13.9% | 20.5% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 12.21 | 7.5% | 17.1% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Belgium U21
Probability
62.4%
Model confidence
62.4%
Belgium U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80