Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pelister · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Belasica 0-0 Pelister, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Belasica 0-0 Pelister
Original prediction
Pelister
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.97 | 18.3% | 29.0% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 29.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 55.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Projected Score
Belasica 0–0 Pelister
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Pelister
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Pelister has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BelasicaDDWDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PelisterWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BelasicaPelister
38.9Attack50.0
72.2Defence94.4
55.6Form77.8
59.1Power74.5
0.91xG1.01