Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belarus W 0-2 Italy W
Original prediction
Italy W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 22.51 | 4.1% | 29.9% | 25.8 pts |
| Draw | 9.55 | 9.6% | 24.0% | 14.5 pts |
| Away | 1.06 | 86.4% | 46.1% | -40.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-40.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Italy W
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Italy W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Belarus WWLWWL
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
Italy WDWDWD
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Belarus WItaly W
83.3Attack66.7
91.7Defence77.8
75.0Form50.0
78.6Power61.3
1.74xG1.40