Belarusvs
San Marino
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Belarus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Belarus 4-0 San Marino
Original prediction
Belarus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.07 | 88.8% | 55.4% | -33.4 pts |
| Draw | 11.03 | 8.6% | 23.2% | 14.6 pts |
| Away | 35.93 | 2.6% | 21.4% | 18.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Belarus
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Belarus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 2 · GA 14 · avg 0.40/2.80